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Manuscript red-team reference · companion to Paper Review

HARK-ing

Hypothesizing After the Results are Known.

What it is

HARK-ing is writing your paper as if you predicted the result you found — even though you actually found it by exploration. Hypothesis 'we predicted X' was added after seeing X in the data. This converts post-hoc observation into apparent confirmatory science, and inflates the perceived evidence for the claim.

Why a reviewer cares

Reviewers look for predictions that are suspiciously specific — exactly the result you got, with no acknowledgement of alternatives. Multiple predictions all confirmed in the same direction. The absence of a pre-registration when one would have been easy to obtain.

How to fix it

Pre-register predictions before collecting or analysing the data. When something interesting emerges from exploration, label it 'exploratory' in the paper and frame it as hypothesis-generating, not hypothesis-confirming. Some venues now accept Registered Reports — peer-reviewed protocols accepted in principle before data collection.


This is one of ~15 canonical methodology explainers Paper Review's red-team report links to. To get a full review of your manuscript, start a Paper Review — $5.